Probability is the model's estimated chance the stock closes up on the next bar. 50% is a coin flip; values above lean UP, below lean DOWN.
Confidence is HIGH when the probability sits far enough from 50% — in either direction — to clear the model's calibrated threshold. LOW means it's in the coin-flip zone.
Direction is BUY when prob ≥ 50%, SELL otherwise. The arrow color matches the call.
ATR % (Average True Range, 14-day) measures recent daily volatility as a percentage of price. A 2% ATR means the stock typically moves ~2% intraday. Higher values signal choppier conditions and wider expected swings on the predicted bar.
Shadow (no-MC) is a sibling model trained without Monte Carlo features. It's shown as a single line in the Latest Signal panel so you can sanity-check whether the MC simulation features are actually changing the call. A Δ badge appears on the ticker tile when the two variants disagree on direction or differ by ≥10 probability points.